June 8, 2023

WTO goods barometer points to a possible trade turnaround

According to the World Trade Organization's (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer, global goods trade remained depressed in the first quarter of 2023, but forward-looking indicators point to a possible turnaround in the second quarter.

The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future

The value of the barometer index rose to 95.6 in the latest reading — up from 92.2 in March — but remained well below the baseline value of 100, suggesting a below-trend stabilization and the beginnings of an upturn in merchandise trade volumes. Mixed signals in the barometer's component indices nevertheless suggest that the road to trade recovery may be bumpy.

The full Goods Trade Barometer is available here (pdf).